Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. These products may not be suitable for all investors. It is important to fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. You should carefully consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing money. The value of your investment may go down as well as up.
Please review our Legal Documents to understand the risks involved before you invest. See your rights and responsibilities as a retail client.
Market Overview
Macro & Geopolitics
Even though the Fed held rates steady, the presence of members who argued for a rate hike during the decision process keeps uncertainty about the fight against inflation alive. For this reason, what matters in markets today is not only whether the released data comes in strong or weak relative to expectations, but also how that data could influence the Fed's decisions at upcoming meetings.
Today's Economic Calendar (GMT)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Fcst | Prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EUR | Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q3) | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 13:00 | EUR | Germany CPI (MoM) (Oct) | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 16:00 | USD | FOMC Member Daly Speaks | — | — |
EUR/USD · FX Major
On the euro side, Q3 advance growth figures and the unemployment rate stand out, while on the US side the Employment Cost Index and Chicago PMI data will be watched. Since these data points could influence expectations for the ECB's and the Fed's monetary policy going forward, they could increase intraday volatility in EUR/USD.
For the pair, the 1.1215 level stands out as an important resistance zone, while on downside moves the 1.1170 level can be followed as the first strong support point.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1215 | 1.1170 |
| 1.1230 | 1.1150 |
| 1.1250 | 1.1120 |
GBP/USD · FX Major
On the last trading day of the week for GBP/USD, pricing centers on UK inflation expectations, the housing market outlook, the Bank of England's (BoE) rate decision next week, and the dollar's path. While sterling has posted limited gains against the dollar through October, fragilities in the UK economy and rising borrowing costs could limit further upside in the pair.
Should the pair maintain its upward trajectory, the 1.3410 level stands out as a strong resistance, while on possible downside moves the 1.3370 level can be followed as the first important support zone.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3410 | 1.3370 |
| 1.3430 | 1.3350 |
| 1.3450 | 1.3320 |
XAU/USD · Metal
Inflation staying elevated in the US is reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold, while geopolitical risks in the Middle East and concerns over energy supply stand out as factors that could support safe-haven demand.
Technically, 4010 and 4020 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while 4000 and 3995 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4010 | 4000 |
| 4020 | 3995 |
| 4040 | 3980 |
XAG/USD · Metal
With US inflation staying elevated, expectations that the Fed could adopt a tighter rate policy stance are strengthening, and the outlook for the dollar and bond yields is pressuring precious metals. Silver, being more sensitive to industrial demand than gold, is affected by both monetary policy expectations and the global growth outlook.
Technically, $52 and $53 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $51 and $50 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $52 | $51 |
| $53 | $50 |
| $55 | $49 |
Brent Oil · Energy
For Brent crude, the key factors will be geopolitical developments in the Middle East, diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran that have resurfaced, concerns over global oil supply, and US economic data.
Technically, $112 and $113 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $110 and $109 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $112 | $110 |
| $113 | $109 |
| $114 | $107 |
The Employment Cost Index coming in above expectations could reinforce the perception that wage-driven inflation pressures are persisting. This could increase expectations that the Fed will keep rates elevated for longer, creating pressure on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin · Crypto
From a technical standpoint, the 79K level stands out as a strong resistance, while in the event of a pullback, the 76K area can be followed as the first support zone.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 79K | 76K |
| 80K | 75K |
| 81K | 73K |
