Dollar’s Post-Fed Reaction in Focus as Core PCE Looms

Today's Economic Calendar (GMT)

EUR/USD · FX Major

Today's main focus for EUR/USD is the dollar's reaction following the Fed's rate decision, the ECB's rate decision, and the US growth and inflation data due for release. Recent developments mean the pair's direction needs to be assessed in light of both US monetary policy and the eurozone's rate outlook together.

For the pair, the 1.1160 level stands out as an important resistance zone, while on downside moves the 1.1130 level can be followed as the first strong support point.

GBP/USD · FX Major

US data coming in favor of the dollar could increase downward pressure on GBP/USD, while signs that inflation is slowing could support a recovery in sterling. For this reason, intraday trading requires attention not only to the data outcomes themselves but also to whether the pair holds at its critical levels.

Should the pair maintain its upward trajectory, the 1.3330 level stands out as a strong resistance, while on possible downside moves the 1.3300 level can be followed as the first important support zone.

XAU/USD · Metal

US data will be critical for gold today. Core PCE inflation in particular serves as an important gauge for assessing how cautious the Fed will remain in its fight against inflation. Inflation coming in above expectations could strengthen expectations that rates will stay elevated for longer, pressuring gold. Conversely, a slowdown in inflation could support gold through a pullback in the dollar and bond yields.

XAG/USD · Metal

For silver, the focus will be on the US Q3 advance GDP reading and September's PCE inflation figures. Inflation coming in above expectations could strengthen the perception that the Fed could keep rates elevated for longer, pressuring silver. Conversely, a slowdown in price increases could support silver through a pullback in the dollar and bond yields.

Technically, $54 and $55 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $53 and $52 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.

Brent Oil · Energy

For Brent crude, the key factors are supply security in the Middle East, diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran, the dollar's path following the Fed's rate decision, and global oil inventories. Oil prices have stayed at elevated levels in recent days on the back of geopolitical risks, while the tug-of-war between the possibility of a diplomatic resolution and potential supply disruptions is driving sharp price swings.

Technically, $110 and $111 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $109 and $108 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.

Bitcoin · Crypto

For Bitcoin, today's key question is whether the US economy continues to stay resilient and how inflation shapes expectations for a Fed rate cut or a renewed rate hike. US growth and PCE inflation data in particular are among the main developments that could increase intraday volatility in the crypto market.

From a technical standpoint, the 81K level stands out as a strong resistance, while in the event of a pullback, the 79K area can be followed as the first support zone.