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Market Overview
Macro & Geopolitics
While US regional activity indicators are on the calendar, the developments with the greatest potential to set the week's overall direction will be central bank decisions along with US growth and inflation data. For gold and Bitcoin, rate expectations and the dollar's movement remain key; for oil, supply conditions and geopolitical risks continue to be important.
Today's Economic Calendar (GMT)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Fcst | Prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | EUR | ECB's Elderson Speaks | — | — |
| 17:00 | USD | 2-Year Note Auction | — | 4.787% |
EUR/USD · FX Major
As the week begins, the main focus for EUR/USD is the monetary policy expectations shaping up ahead of this week's Fed and ECB rate decisions. Having struggled to recover against the dollar last week, the euro remains under pressure following a string of consecutive declines, and markets are waiting for this week's central bank messaging to determine the pair's direction.
For the pair, the 1.1220 level stands out as an important resistance zone, while on downside moves the 1.1200 level can be followed as the first strong support point.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1220 | 1.1200 |
| 1.1240 | 1.1180 |
| 1.1260 | 1.1160 |
GBP/USD · FX Major
As the new week begins for GBP/USD, the focus is on the UK's growth and consumption outlook along with the support the dollar is drawing from rate expectations. Sterling has remained under pressure against the dollar in recent weeks, and investors' attention has shifted to the policy approach of the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Should the pair maintain its upward trajectory, the 1.3380 level stands out as a strong resistance, while on possible downside moves the 1.3350 level can be followed as the first important support zone.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3380 | 1.3350 |
| 1.3400 | 1.3320 |
| 1.3420 | 1.3300 |
XAU/USD · Metal
The pressure on gold is rooted in rising energy prices, which are reinforcing inflation concerns once again. Oil staying at elevated levels supports expectations that central banks could keep rates higher for longer, increasing the holding cost of non-yielding gold. US bond yields remaining at high levels and the dollar's strong tone are also among the factors making a recovery in spot gold more difficult.
Technically, 4000 and 4005 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while 3990 and 3980 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4000 | 3990 |
| 4010 | 3980 |
| 4020 | 3950 |
XAG/USD · Metal
For silver, US data showing resilient economic activity could be supportive from an industrial-demand standpoint. However, strong growth pulling inflation and rate expectations higher could put opposing pressure on silver's pricing as a financial asset.
Technically, $54 and $55 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $53 and $52 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $54 | $53 |
| $55 | $52 |
| $56 | $51 |
Brent Oil · Energy
Brent crude could draw support from expectations around oil demand if the US economy stays resilient. However, strong data also pushing the dollar and bond yields higher could complicate oil pricing through financial conditions. For Brent this week, physical supply-flow news remains as important as economic data.
Technically, $110 and $111 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $109 and $108 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $110 | $109 |
| $111 | $108 |
| $112 | $107 |
Bitcoin · Crypto
The Fed decision will be one of the most important catalysts of the week for BTC/USD. If the Fed holds rates steady and delivers a more dovish tone regarding upcoming meetings, putting downward pressure on bond yields and the dollar, this could provide support for Bitcoin.
The 80K level stands out as a strong resistance, while the 79K area can be followed as the first support zone on possible pullbacks.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 80K | 79K |
| 82K | 78K |
| 85K | 75K |
