Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. These products may not be suitable for all investors. It is important to fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. You should carefully consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing money. The value of your investment may go down as well as up.
Please review our Legal Documents to understand the risks involved before you invest. See your rights and responsibilities as a retail client.
Market Overview
Macro & Geopolitics
Geopolitical risks continue to influence market pricing. Developments in the Middle East increasing concerns over oil supply could affect inflation expectations through energy prices. The pullback in oil prices on October 26 and the decline in US bond yields formed an important balancing factor for the dollar's direction. At the same time, investors keeping their positions limited ahead of the Fed decision could lead to narrow-range moves in major pairs and sharp post-data price swings.
Today's Economic Calendar (GMT)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Fcst | Prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | USD | CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) | 80.5 | 81.9 |
| 14:00 | USD | New Home Sales (Sep) | 649K | 684K |
EUR/USD · FX Major
Another key risk for EUR/USD is the relationship between energy prices and the eurozone's growth outlook. Brent crude staying at elevated levels could increase cost pressures in the eurozone, which is dependent on energy imports. This could both strain economic activity and complicate the fight against inflation.
For the pair, the 1.1180 level stands out as an important resistance zone, while on downside moves the 1.1160 level can be followed as the first strong support point.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1180 | 1.1160 |
| 1.1200 | 1.1150 |
| 1.1220 | 1.1140 |
GBP/USD · FX Major
On the US side for GBP/USD, investors are focused not only on the Fed's current rate decision but also on its messaging for the rest of the year. US data staying strong and the Fed maintaining a cautious stance on inflation could increase dollar demand, creating pressure on GBP/USD.
Should the pair maintain its upward trajectory, the 1.3350 level stands out as a strong resistance, while on possible downside moves the 1.3330 level can be followed as the first important support zone.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3350 | 1.3330 |
| 1.3380 | 1.3300 |
| 1.3400 | 1.3280 |
XAU/USD · Metal
While rates being held steady is the general expectation, investors are focused on the Fed's messaging about a possible December rate hike or a tighter policy stance. Expectations that rates will stay elevated for a long time could increase the holding cost of non-yielding gold, pressuring prices.
Technically, 4010 and 4020 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while 4005 and 4000 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4010 | 4005 |
| 4020 | 4000 |
| 4060 | 3980 |
XAG/USD · Metal
Among the main reasons behind the pressure on silver are high energy prices increasing inflation concerns, expectations that the Fed could hike rates later in the year, and the broader sell-off seen across precious metals.
Technically, $54 and $55 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $53 and $52 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $54 | $53 |
| $55 | $52 |
| $56 | $51 |
Brent Oil · Energy
The main reason Brent crude is staying at elevated levels is that markets are pricing in not only current production and export volumes but also the possibility of new disruptions. Alleged Houthi attacks in Yemen targeting Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline and targets around Riyadh have increased concerns over the continuity of energy supply. Tanker security issues around the Strait of Hormuz are also keeping a risk premium embedded in global oil shipping.
Technically, $110 and $111 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $109 and $108 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $110 | $109 |
| $111 | $108 |
| $112 | $107 |
Bitcoin · Crypto
Among the main drivers of pressure on BTC/USD are weakness in technology stocks, geopolitical risks stemming from the Middle East, and concerns that energy prices could disrupt the inflation outlook. Oil prices staying elevated is keeping alive the possibility that the Fed could pursue a tighter monetary policy, by reinforcing expectations that inflation could prove persistent.
From a technical standpoint, the 80K level stands out as a strong resistance, while in the event of a pullback, the 79K area can be followed as the first support zone.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 80K | 79K |
| 82K | 78K |
| 85K | 75K |
