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Market Overview
Macro & Geopolitics
Following today's Fed decision, markets will assess the messaging on the path of inflation and future rate moves. While expectations lean toward rates being held steady, energy-driven inflation risks and the effects of previous rate hikes make the statement critical. A hawkish tone could support the dollar and bond yields, while a more dovish tone could open room for risk assets.
Today's Economic Calendar (GMT)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Fcst | Prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | USD | Interest Rate Decision | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| 18:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference | — | — |
EUR/USD · FX Major
Today's Fed rate decision stands out as the most important development that could determine EUR/USD's short-term direction. Investors are focused not only on the rate decision itself but also on the Fed's messaging about its fight against inflation and the policy path for the rest of the year. A strengthening in expectations that US rates could stay elevated for a long time could help the dollar preserve its rate advantage and keep selling pressure on EUR/USD intact.
For the pair, the 1.1130 level stands out as an important resistance zone, while on downside moves the 1.1120 level can be followed as the first strong support point.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1130 | 1.1120 |
| 1.1140 | 1.1100 |
| 1.1160 | 1.1090 |
GBP/USD · FX Major
Sterling has found support in recent weeks from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) could raise rates. However, these expectations being largely priced in limits room for further gains. At the same time, the dollar gaining strength ahead of the Fed is creating pressure on GBP/USD. As a result, today's pricing reflects not only the rate decisions themselves but also the policy divergence between the two countries and the potential impact of the UK budget on the bond market.
Should the pair maintain its upward trajectory, the 1.3310 level stands out as a strong resistance, while on possible downside moves the 1.3300 level can be followed as the first important support zone.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3310 | 1.3300 |
| 1.3330 | 1.3290 |
| 1.3340 | 1.3280 |
XAU/USD · Metal
Inflation coming in above expectations could strengthen expectations that rates will stay elevated for longer, limiting gold's upside. A below-expectations outcome, on the other hand, could ease rate pressure, support a pullback in the dollar, and help gold move higher again.
Technically, 4050 and 4070 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while 4040 and 4020 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4050 | 4040 |
| 4070 | 4020 |
| 4100 | 4000 |
XAG/USD · Metal
Silver prices are currently caught between two opposing dynamics. On one side, easing oil prices, reduced inflation concerns, and buying interest in precious metals are supporting prices. On the other side, a strong US dollar, elevated rate expectations, and uncertainty around global industrial demand are limiting silver's upside.
Technically, $54 and $55 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $53 and $52 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $54 | $53 |
| $55 | $52 |
| $56 | $51 |
Brent Oil · Energy
If the Fed signals a tighter monetary policy stance, this could strengthen the dollar and make dollar-priced commodities like oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies. In such a scenario, downward pressure could build on Brent even as geopolitical risks continue to support prices.
Technically, $110 and $111 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $109 and $108 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $110 | $109 |
| $111 | $108 |
| $112 | $107 |
Bitcoin · Crypto
If messaging suggesting rates will stay elevated and policy will remain tight leads to a stronger dollar and bond yields, this could create pressure on Bitcoin. That's because high-yielding traditional assets can limit demand for non-yielding crypto assets.
From a technical standpoint, the 80K level stands out as a strong resistance, while in the event of a pullback, the 79K area can be followed as the first support zone.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 80K | 79K |
| 82K | 78K |
| 85K | 75K |
