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Market Overview
Macro & Geopolitics
Increasing diplomatic contacts ahead of the US-China leaders' summit are in focus for markets. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said talks with Chinese officials have gone well, with a new AI dialogue mechanism and an extension of the trade truce on the agenda. While no final agreement has been reached yet, the continuation of contacts is supporting global risk appetite.
A pullback in oil prices and US Treasury yields is also supporting markets. Signs of recovery in energy flows are easing supply concerns, while falling energy costs are reducing inflationary pressure.
On the geopolitical side, the UN General Assembly, now underway, will keep global security and economic risks in focus, particularly around Iran, Gaza, and Ukraine. Upcoming diplomatic messaging will matter for energy markets and risk perception.
Today's Economic Calendar (GMT)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Fcst | Prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:15 | USD | Weekly ADP Employment Change | — | 16.30K |
| 14:05 | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | — | — |
| 17:00 | USD | 2-Year Note Auction | — | 4.315% |
EUR/USD · FX Major
Weak exports and slowing consumption in the German economy are increasing pressure on the growth outlook. The Bundesbank noted that economic activity is losing momentum, while assessing that high energy costs could keep inflation elevated for a while longer. In France, concerns over a high budget deficit are raising the risk premium in the bond market, adding further pressure on the euro. Weak growth and fiscal uncertainty across Europe could weigh on EUR/USD, while the pullback in energy prices could provide limited support to the regional economy.
The 1.1500 level stands out as a key resistance zone for the pair, while 1.1440 can be followed as the first strong support level on downside moves.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1500 | 1.1440 |
| 1.1530 | 1.1410 |
| 1.1560 | 1.1380 |
GBP/USD · FX Major
Today's UK PMI data will be closely watched for what it says about the economy's outlook in September. Strong readings in the services and manufacturing sectors would support expectations that the BoE could keep rates higher for longer, while weak results could deepen growth concerns and weigh on the pound. A planned new partnership between the UK and the US in AI and defense stands out as a development that could support sterling over the medium term via technology investment and the growth outlook.
Should the pair extend its upward trajectory, 1.3400 stands out as a strong resistance level, while 1.3340 can be followed as the first key support zone on any downside moves.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3400 | 1.3340 |
| 1.3430 | 1.3310 |
| 1.3460 | 1.3280 |
XAU/USD · Metal
Dollar strength and rising expectations of a fresh Fed rate hike are weighing on gold. Hawkish Fed expectations are supporting the dollar, while the view that a high-rate environment could persist may limit the upside for non-yielding gold. On the other hand, the pullback in oil prices easing inflationary pressure and US Treasury yields retreating from recent peaks could partly offset the pressure on gold. In this environment, the dollar and Fed expectations create downward pressure, while easing bond yields and geopolitical uncertainty remain factors supporting gold.
Technically, 4375 and 4405 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while 4315 and 4285 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4375 | 4315 |
| 4405 | 4285 |
| 4435 | 4255 |
XAG/USD · Metal
High US Treasury yields and a strong dollar are weighing on silver. Hawkish messaging from Fed officials and expectations of an additional rate hike could limit the upside for non-yielding silver. On the other hand, resilient industrial production in China stands out as a factor supporting silver via industrial demand. As a result, the path of the dollar and bond yields is creating pressure in the near term, while China-driven demand could limit the losses.
Technically, $69 and $72 stand out as key resistance levels, while $63 and $60 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $69 | $63 |
| $72 | $60 |
| $75 | $57 |
Brent Oil · Energy
Saudi Arabia increasing exports, a partial recovery in oil flow through Hormuz, and hopes around US-Iran diplomacy are easing supply concerns somewhat. Regional producers activating alternative shipping methods is also preventing a larger supply shock. On the other hand, the alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers used to work around disruptions in Hormuz and the Red Sea are raising freight costs, making oil trade more expensive and fragile. As a result, the improvement in the supply outlook is easing pressure on oil, while logistical costs and regional risks continue to keep upside risks alive.
Technically, $101 and $104 stand out as key resistance levels, while $95 and $92 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $101 | $95 |
| $104 | $92 |
| $107 | $89 |
Bitcoin · Crypto
Heavy liquidation of short positions in Bitcoin has accelerated the upward move, while strong risk appetite in technology stocks is also supporting the crypto market. The rally in the Nasdaq and buying interest in AI stocks are strengthening investors' appetite for riskier assets. In addition, the pullback in US Treasury yields and oil prices is easing financial conditions somewhat, creating a supportive environment for Bitcoin. However, the continuation of this short-squeeze-driven move will depend on risk appetite holding up and the path of bond yields.
Technically, $88K and $91K stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $82K and $79K remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 88K | 82K |
| 91K | 79K |
| 94K | 76K |
