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Market Overview
Macro & Geopolitics
Comments from Fed officials and the resilient outlook for the US economy are reinforcing expectations that tight monetary policy could be maintained for longer. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted that consumer spending and economic activity are strengthening, while pointing out that inflationary pressures persist.
On the US-China side, a slowdown in the implementation of existing trade commitments stands out ahead of the leaders' meeting. As a result, the messaging that emerges from the Trump-Xi meeting will be closely watched for the direction of trade relations.
The geopolitical agenda is also intensifying around the UN General Assembly. Iran-US/Israel tension, the Russia-Ukraine war, and energy security are in focus; diplomatic steps could support risk appetite, while new sanctions or rising tension could increase volatility in energy and safe-haven assets.
Today's Economic Calendar (GMT)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Fcst | Prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | USD | Manufacturing PMI | 53.6 | 53.9 |
| 13:45 | USD | Services PMI | 55.80 | 56.50 |
| 14:30 | USD | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.600M | -0.640M |
EUR/USD · FX Major
On the dollar side, the repricing of the possibility of an additional Fed rate hike stands out. Investors assigning greater weight to a fresh hike at the next meeting is supporting US bond yields and the dollar, keeping the dollar's recent strong trajectory intact. In contrast, oil prices falling on Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is reinforcing expectations that energy-driven inflation pressure in the US could ease. This outlook could reduce pressure on the Fed to hike further, which may somewhat limit the dollar's rate advantage and the pressure on EUR/USD.
The 1.1460 level stands out as a key resistance zone for the pair, while 1.1400 can be followed as the first strong support level on downside moves.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1460 | 1.1400 |
| 1.1490 | 1.1370 |
| 1.1520 | 1.1340 |
GBP/USD · FX Major
Positive signals from the UK manufacturing sector are providing limited support to the growth outlook. In the CBI survey, factory orders rose to their strongest level since July 2023, while improving output expectations point to a possible recovery in the sector. Oil prices falling on news that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen could ease the UK's energy costs. However, this could also reduce pressure on the BoE to hike rates further, which may limit the gains for sterling.
Should the pair extend its upward trajectory, 1.3350 stands out as a strong resistance level, while 1.3290 can be followed as the first key support zone on any downside moves.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3350 | 1.3290 |
| 1.3380 | 1.3260 |
| 1.3410 | 1.3230 |
XAU/USD · Metal
Hawkish messaging from Fed officials and profit-taking following the recent rally are weighing on gold. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin's remarks that the economy is gaining strength and that inflationary pressures persist are supporting expectations that rates could stay elevated for longer. On the other hand, the pullback in oil prices could ease energy-driven inflation pressure and limit the rise in bond yields. The prospect of US-Iran diplomacy is reducing safe-haven demand, while continued uncertainty in the Middle East keeps supporting demand for gold as a hedge.
Technically, 4375 and 4405 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while 4310 and 4280 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4375 | 4310 |
| 4405 | 4280 |
| 4435 | 4250 |
XAG/USD · Metal
The strong trend in technology and AI investment is creating a supportive backdrop for silver via industrial demand. Rising investment in data centers, semiconductors, and energy infrastructure, together with resilient solar installation activity, stand out among the main factors supporting silver demand. On the other hand, hawkish messaging from the Fed could weigh on silver. Rates staying elevated for longer, combined with a strong dollar, could limit investment demand for non-yielding silver.
Technically, $69 and $72 stand out as key resistance levels, while $63 and $60 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $69 | $63 |
| $72 | $60 |
| $75 | $57 |
Brent Oil · Energy
Hormuz traffic falling back to very low levels and two tankers coming under attack in the region are increasing concerns over oil shipments. Statements suggesting the US-Iran diplomatic process could drag on also point to geopolitical risks persisting in the near term. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia preparing to bring its East-West pipeline back online could partly ease risks by providing an alternative supply channel to Hormuz. However, uncertainty over the pipeline's capacity and the halt of deliveries to some European refineries show that fragility on the supply side persists.
Technically, $99 and $102 stand out as key resistance levels, while $93 and $90 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $99 | $93 |
| $102 | $90 |
| $105 | $87 |
Bitcoin · Crypto
Falling oil prices and the strong performance of technology stocks are supporting risk appetite for Bitcoin. The Nasdaq staying strong, led by technology stocks, is also reflecting positively on the crypto market, contributing to Bitcoin recovering its recent losses. On the other hand, hawkish messaging from the Fed remains a significant risk. Strengthening expectations of an additional rate hike and bond yields climbing again could tighten financial conditions and increase selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Technically, $89K and $92K stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $83K and $80K remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 89K | 83K |
| 92K | 80K |
| 95K | 77K |
