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Market Overview
Macro & Geopolitics
Global markets are entering the new trading day shaped by the results of the US midterm elections, accelerating inflation in the Eurozone, and developments in the Middle East. The Democrats winning a majority in both chambers of the US Congress is reshaping the political balance in Washington, ushering in a new phase for budget spending and AI-sector regulation. Following the elections, the dollar and bond yields pulled back while equity markets staged a recovery.
In Europe, inflation rising to 4.0% is increasing rate pressure on the ECB, while private-sector employment in the US beating expectations shows that economic activity remains resilient. Meanwhile, the pullback in oil prices on Middle East diplomatic developments is weighing on energy costs and global inflation expectations.
Today's Economic Calendar (GMT)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Fcst | Prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | GBP | UK Interest Rate Decision | 4.00% | 3.75% |
| 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 197K | 194K |
| 13:30 | USD | Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) | 2.8% | 1.4% |
EUR/USD · FX Major
Eurozone annual inflation rising to 4.0%, driven by higher energy costs, is strengthening rate pressure on the ECB. Rising services and food prices are supporting expectations of a fresh rate hike in December.
On the other hand, the decline in services and composite PMI data points to slowing economic activity. The balance between high inflation and weakening growth will be decisive for ECB rate policy and the euro.
For the pair, the 1.1280 level stands out as an important resistance zone, while on downside moves the 1.1220 level can be followed as the first strong support point.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1280 | 1.1220 |
| 1.1310 | 1.1190 |
| 1.1340 | 1.1160 |
GBP/USD · FX Major
UK annual inflation holding at 3.5%, economic activity beating expectations, and a recovery in the labor market are strengthening expectations of a BoE rate hike. While markets are pricing in a move from 3.75% to 4.00%, assessments that the additional rate hikes priced in for 2027 could be too aggressive may limit sterling's gains.
Should the pair maintain its upward trajectory, the 1.3500 level stands out as a strong resistance, while on possible downside moves the 1.3460 level can be followed as the first important support zone.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3500 | 1.3460 |
| 1.3520 | 1.3440 |
| 1.3540 | 1.3420 |
XAU/USD · Metal
Gold staged a strong rebound following the US midterm elections, supported by a pullback in the dollar and bond yields. Increased pressure on the dollar after the Democrats won majorities in both chambers of Congress supported buying interest in the precious metal.
Today's US jobless claims and labor productivity data, along with the nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate, will be closely watched for gold's direction through their effect on the Fed's rate expectations.
Technically, 4170 and 4200 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while 4105 and 4070 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4170 | 4105 |
| 4200 | 4070 |
| 4230 | 4035 |
XAG/USD · Metal
The key factor limiting silver's recovery is the strengthening expectation that the Fed could deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. This is keeping the risk of a rise in the dollar and bond yields alive, weighing on silver.
Today's US labor productivity and weekly jobless claims data, along with the nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate, will be decisive for XAG/USD's direction through their effect on Fed rate expectations and the path of the dollar.
Technically, $56 and $58 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $50 and $47 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $56 | $50 |
| $58 | $47 |
| $61 | $44 |
Brent Oil · Energy
US crude oil inventories falling for a fifth consecutive week, with diesel stocks dropping to their lowest level in years, points to persistent supply tightness in the energy market. In particular, the decline in refined product inventories is keeping fuel-supply concerns alive.
On the other hand, expectations of a global supply surplus and US-Iran diplomatic talks could limit the pressure on oil. Shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz and changes in US energy inventories will continue to be decisive for Brent crude's direction.
Technically, $96 and $99 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $90 and $87 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $96 | $90 |
| $99 | $87 |
| $102 | $84 |
The total crypto market cap falling by roughly $300 billion over the past month highlights weakening risk appetite. Concerns over AI-related investment, rising borrowing costs, and security issues in the sector are adding to selling pressure. Large short-position liquidations in derivatives markets during the recent rebound also point to continued volatility.
Today's US jobless claims and labor productivity data, along with the nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate, could influence Bitcoin's direction through their effect on Fed rate expectations.
Bitcoin · Crypto
The 83K level stands out as a strong resistance, while the 77K area can be followed as the first support zone on possible pullbacks.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 83K | 77K |
| 86K | 74K |
| 89K | 71K |
