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Market Overview
Macro & Geopolitics
Global markets turned more cautious amid selling in technology stocks and military tension in the Middle East. Expectations of AI-sector regulation in the US are pressuring semiconductor stocks, while tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and diplomatic uncertainty between the US and Iran are increasing volatility in the oil market.
The Bank of England's rate hike and fresh tightening signals are keeping inflation concerns alive. In the US, declining jobless claims point to a resilient labor market, while rising productivity and falling unit labor costs present a more positive picture. Today's US employment and wage data will be decisive for the Fed's rate expectations and the dollar's direction.
Today's Economic Calendar (GMT)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Fcst | Prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls | 65K | 29K |
| 13:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 13:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.1% |
EUR/USD · FX Major
After Eurozone inflation rose to 4.0% in October, ECB President Christine Lagarde's comment that the December rate decision will depend on upcoming economic data is keeping expectations of a fresh rate hike alive.
Today's US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings data will be decisive for the dollar and EUR/USD through their effect on the Fed's rate expectations.
For the pair, the 1.1245 level stands out as an important resistance zone, while on downside moves the 1.1175 level can be followed as the first strong support point.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1245 | 1.1175 |
| 1.1275 | 1.1145 |
| 1.1300 | 1.1115 |
GBP/USD · FX Major
The Bank of England raised its policy rate by 25 basis points at its latest meeting, from 3.75% to 4.00%. This marks the BoE's first rate hike since August 2023, strengthening rate-driven support for sterling.
Today's US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings data will be decisive for the dollar and GBP/USD through their effect on the Fed's December rate expectations.
Should the pair maintain its upward trajectory, the 1.3430 level stands out as a strong resistance, while on possible downside moves the 1.3460 level can be followed as the first important support zone.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3430 | 1.3460 |
| 1.3450 | 1.3440 |
| 1.3470 | 1.3420 |
XAU/USD · Metal
Gold extended its rally following the US midterm elections, supported by a pullback in the dollar and bond yields, reaching its highest level in two weeks. The dollar's weakness and the US 10-year yield falling to its lowest level in recent times are among the key factors boosting the appeal of the non-yielding precious metal.
That said, the fact that elevated rate-hike expectations have not fully faded, along with resilient US economic activity, poses a risk to the continuation of gold's rally. Strong US employment and wage data could support the dollar and bond yields, limiting gold's recovery, while weaker results could add momentum to the upside move.
Technically, 4070 and 4100 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while 4015 and 3985 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4070 | 4015 |
| 4100 | 3985 |
| 4130 | 3955 |
XAG/USD · Metal
Silver climbed roughly 10% over the past three trading sessions to above $53, supported by a pullback in the dollar and bond yields following the US midterm elections. This rally points more to the decline in the dollar and bond yields than to rate expectations as the key driver.
On the other hand, the physical supply outlook and the Fed's rate expectations remain important. Strong US employment data could support the dollar and weigh on silver, while weaker results could strengthen the recovery.
Technically, $54 and $57 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $48 and $45 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $54 | $48 |
| $57 | $45 |
| $60 | $42 |
Brent Oil · Energy
In the oil market, refinery operations and shifts in global fuel demand are coming into focus. US refineries are shifting production away from gasoline toward middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel to capture higher profit margins. Gasoline's declining share of total output, together with diesel production running above its five-year average, points to a changing supply-demand balance in the refined products market.
Against this backdrop, refinery margins, diesel and jet fuel demand, and shifts in global refining capacity remain important for Brent crude's medium-term supply-demand balance.
Technically, $102 and $105 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $97 and $94 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $102 | $97 |
| $105 | $94 |
| $108 | $91 |
Bitcoin failed to hold onto the rally it staged after the US midterm elections and pulled back again. Sharp sell-offs in US technology stocks, particularly in the AI and semiconductor sectors, are also weakening risk appetite in the crypto market.
Uncertainty over the future of the CLARITY Act in the US is also weighing on the regulatory outlook for the crypto sector. Bitcoin's short-term direction will continue to be shaped by the performance of technology stocks, institutional fund flows, and global risk appetite.
Bitcoin · Crypto
The 79K level stands out as a strong resistance, while the 73K area can be followed as the first support zone on possible pullbacks.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 79K | 73K |
| 82K | 70K |
| 85K | 67K |
