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Market Overview
Macro & Geopolitics
Markets are focused on the rate expectations that have taken shape following the Fed's latest meeting and on this week's US employment data. While the Fed held its policy rate steady, two members dissenting in favor of a rate hike revealed differing views on the fight against inflation. The Fed also strengthened its assessment of economic activity, highlighting the resilient outlook of the US economy.
This week's manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, ADP employment, services-sector indicators, and the nonfarm payrolls report could shape expectations for the Fed's next steps. In particular, strong employment and wage growth could support expectations of a rate hike and strengthen the dollar, while weaker data could ease rate pressure and pave the way for the dollar to pull back.
Today's Economic Calendar (GMT)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Fcst | Prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI | 52.4 | 52.4 |
| 14:45 | USD | Manufacturing PMI | 56.0 | 56.0 |
| 15:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.7 | 54.5 |
EUR/USD · FX Major
In the Eurozone, expectations that rising energy costs could push October inflation back up are keeping the possibility of an additional ECB rate hike on the agenda. While expectations of a rate hike in December could support the euro, concerns over France's fiscal outlook and rising bond yields stand out as factors that could weigh on the pair.
For the pair, the 1.1190 level stands out as an important resistance zone, while on downside moves the 1.1130 level can be followed as the first strong support point.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1190 | 1.1130 |
| 1.1220 | 1.1100 |
| 1.1250 | 1.1070 |
GBP/USD · FX Major
Following the UK government's budget announcement, reduced fiscal uncertainty and a pullback in US bond yields are supporting sterling's recovery. Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a BoE rate hike at its November 5 meeting, while the bank's forward guidance on future monetary policy remains key for the pair's direction.
Should the pair maintain its upward trajectory, the 1.3400 level stands out as a strong resistance, while on possible downside moves the 1.3360 level can be followed as the first important support zone.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3400 | 1.3360 |
| 1.3420 | 1.3340 |
| 1.3440 | 1.3320 |
XAU/USD · Metal
Gold closed out October with losses, weighed down by strong US economic activity, accelerating inflation, and expectations that the Fed could raise rates again in December. The strengthening likelihood of a rate hike is increasing pressure on the precious metal via the dollar and bond yields, and investors' focus is now turning to this week's US data.
This week's manufacturing and services PMI figures, along with the nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate, will be decisive for XAU/USD's direction through their influence on the dollar and rate expectations.
Technically, 3930 and 3960 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while 3870 and 3840 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 3930 | 3870 |
| 3960 | 3840 |
| 3990 | 3810 |
XAG/USD · Metal
Silver suffered losses in the final trading days of October, slipping below key thresholds amid expectations of renewed Fed rate hikes and sharp sell-offs in technology stocks. The fact that silver lost value despite falling US bond yields highlighted that risk aversion and the unwinding of leveraged positions, rather than rate expectations, were the main drivers behind the price action.
Technically, $52 and $54 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $48 and $46 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $52 | $48 |
| $54 | $46 |
| $56 | $44 |
Brent Oil · Energy
Supply disruptions originating in the Middle East and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to support upward pressure on oil. OPEC+'s decision to leave production targets unchanged is also keeping the global supply outlook tight, alongside export problems in the region.
On the other hand, proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz emerging from Qatar-mediated talks between the US and Iran are raising hopes for a diplomatic resolution. A potential agreement could ease supply pressure on oil by allowing shipments to resume, while a breakdown in talks and escalating military tensions could support prices.
Technically, $113 and $116 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $107 and $104 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $113 | $107 |
| $116 | $104 |
| $119 | $101 |
In the Bitcoin market, the cyberattack on Binance and the subsequent large-scale withdrawals by investors from the exchange are heightening confidence concerns across the crypto market. Although Binance has stated it will cover the majority of the losses, the continuation of heavy outflows signals that investors are maintaining a cautious stance.
In addition, strong net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs are highlighting weakening institutional demand. Meanwhile, the US midterm elections remain on markets' radar given their implications for crypto-sector regulatory expectations and a possible shift in the balance of power in Congress.
Bitcoin · Crypto
The 81K level stands out as a strong resistance, while the 76K area can be followed as the first support zone on possible pullbacks.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 81K | 76K |
| 83K | 74K |
| 85K | 72K |
