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Market Overview
Macro & Geopolitics
European equities declined on geopolitical uncertainty and selling pressure in technology stocks, while Brent crude traded choppily on developments in the Middle East. The US JOLTS report signaling a resilient labor market kept Fed rate-policy expectations in focus and carried significance for the path of the dollar and bond yields.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate hike again highlighted diverging monetary policy among global central banks. The Fed's rate outlook, geopolitical developments, and selling pressure in the tech sector continue to weigh on global risk appetite.
Today's Economic Calendar (GMT)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Fcst | Prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI (YoY) | 4.0% | 3.8% |
| 13:15 | USD | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change | 67K | 90K |
| 14:45 | USD | Services PMI | 57.9 | 58.8 |
| 15:00 | USD | ISM Services PMI | 54.8 | 54.9 |
EUR/USD · FX Major
For EUR/USD, the resilient US labor market and energy-driven inflation pressures in the Eurozone stand out. US job openings rising above expectations is helping the dollar retain its rate-driven support, while energy costs feeding through to consumer prices in Europe is influencing ECB rate-policy expectations. Today's Eurozone inflation data will be an important development in determining the pressure on the euro going forward.
For the pair, the 1.1215 level stands out as an important resistance zone, while on downside moves the 1.1150 level can be followed as the first strong support point.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1215 | 1.1150 |
| 1.1250 | 1.1120 |
| 1.1285 | 1.1090 |
GBP/USD · FX Major
UK annual inflation holding at 3.5%, economic activity beating expectations, and a recovery in the labor market are strengthening expectations of a BoE rate hike. While markets are pricing in a move from 3.75% to 4.00%, assessments that the additional rate hikes priced in for 2027 could be too aggressive may limit sterling's gains.
Should the pair maintain its upward trajectory, the 1.3440 level stands out as a strong resistance, while on possible downside moves the 1.3380 level can be followed as the first important support zone.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3440 | 1.3380 |
| 1.3470 | 1.3350 |
| 1.3500 | 1.3320 |
XAU/USD · Metal
Gold is back under pressure amid a stronger dollar and rising bond yields. Strengthening expectations that the Fed could raise rates in December continue to weigh on the non-yielding precious metal.
On the other hand, uncertainty ahead of the US midterm elections and renewed military tension between the US and Iran in the Middle East could support safe-haven demand. However, the strong dollar and bond yields remain the key factors limiting gold's recovery.
Technically, 3980 and 4010 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while 3920 and 3890 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 3980 | 3920 |
| 4010 | 3890 |
| 4040 | 3860 |
XAG/USD · Metal
Silver remains under pressure following US military strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, which heightened energy-supply concerns, combined with expectations that the Fed could raise rates in December. While tension in the Middle East could support safe-haven demand, rising oil prices stoking inflation concerns and tight monetary policy expectations are making silver's recovery difficult.
On the other hand, declining silver bullion production in China stands out as a development that could provide short-term support on the supply side. However, the durability of this support will depend on the path of the dollar and rate expectations.
Technically, $52 and $54 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $47 and $45 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $52 | $47 |
| $54 | $45 |
| $56 | $43 |
Brent Oil · Energy
Intensifying attacks on energy infrastructure in the Russia-Ukraine war, including Ukraine targeting a Russian oil refinery, are keeping uncertainty over global energy supply alive. On the other hand, a successful outcome from the planned trilateral peace talks could shift expectations for Russian oil exports and affect the supply outlook.
Expectations of a build in US crude oil inventories are acting as a balancing factor on the supply side. Today's EIA inventory data, along with military and diplomatic developments in the Middle East, will continue to be decisive for the direction of oil prices.
Technically, $106 and $109 stand out as key resistance levels respectively, while $100 and $97 remain the support levels to watch on the downside.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| $106 | $100 |
| $109 | $97 |
| $112 | $94 |
In the Bitcoin market, approximately $399 million in net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs on November 2 are highlighting weakening institutional investor demand. In particular, outflows of more than $405 million from BlackRock's IBIT fund are reinforcing the market's cautious tone.
Security concerns in the crypto market also persist. New details emerging about how the Binance cyberattack was carried out are raising questions about the security of centralized exchanges, further supporting investors' cautious stance.
Bitcoin · Crypto
The 80K level stands out as a strong resistance, while the 74K area can be followed as the first support zone on possible pullbacks.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 80K | 74K |
| 83K | 71K |
| 87K | 68K |
